Let's not forget that projection systems aren't known for being exuberant, so when ZiPS is projecting a result this astounding, it's a good idea to take notice. If I ask ZiPS to re-project the remainder of several players' careers (the table to the right), that extra bit of value from Machado playing shortstop puts him smack-dab in the middle of Trout and Harper, rather than fighting Carlos Correa for fourth place.Īnd where would a 79.6 WAR, when added to the 20.4 WAR he has already put up, land Machado in history? Second place among shortstops, behind Honus Wagner, just edging out Cal Ripken Jr. Since the difference between offensive value of a typical shortstop and a typical third baseman is larger than 2.5 runs per 150 games, Machado's value is definitely enhanced by the move. ZiPS blends the limited direct measurement of Machado's shortstop play with the implied SS performance from the other factors and expects Machado to lose only 2.5 runs per year relative to a league-average defensive player when moving from third to short on a full-time basis. And lastly, the fact that he has played the position professionally before is very helpful here it's another important variable for this kind of projection. Machado is having a down year in ZiPS' version of speed score so far, but from a projection standpoint, ZiPS ranks his speed as 10th best among starting shortstops for the rest of the season. Another indicator is a rough measure of speed - I use a modified version of Bill James' Speed Score - as faster players tend to do better at moving to tougher defensive positions than slower ones do. And by all these indicators, Machado ranks very highly.įirst, the younger a player is, the smaller the defensive loss (relative to league average at the position) when moving to a more difficult position. One thing the ZiPS projection system does when projecting a player's defense at a position he doesn't normally play is to look at secondary indicators, based on the history of players moving to easier or more difficult positions. Let's split the difference and call it 13.5 runs.īut we need more than that because 200-some innings is a fairly small sample size. In just over 200 major league innings at short, Machado has been 10 runs per 150 games better than a league-average shortstop, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved metric, and 17 runs per 150 games in terms of FanGraphs' Ultimate Zone Rating. Now that he's back to playing there, we have a better idea of how valuable he can be. Even while playing third, his ability to step in at shortstop was an asset most teams didn't have. Hardy on the big league squad, the team moved him. There were no questions about Machado's defense at short when he was coming up through the minors, but due to the presence of slick-fielding veteran shortstop J.J.
It's worth noting that Machado never gave the O's a reason to move him to third. How valuable? Try Mike Trout-Bryce Harper valuable. Now as a shortstop, a more demanding position and one with fewer big-time bats, he's even more valuable. That would be the eighth-best season for a third baseman under 25 in baseball history (his 2015 was 22nd all time among under-25 third basemen).īut that's just it: Machado was not just a fantastic third baseman in recent years, he was a shortstop playing out of position because of his team's roster construction. 297/.363/.551 for the season, with 36 homers and 8.2 WAR, yet another new high for him and well within range of Trout, the odds-on favorite to win the AL MVP award. 307/.371/.619 line with 13 homers in 43 games for the O's, putting him at 3.0 WAR already for the season. In 2016, he has been even better, posting a. He also made another significant statement last season: He crushed any remaining concerns about his surgically repaired knee, playing in all 162 games and leading the American League in plate appearances. 286/.359/.502 line, with 35 homers and 7.1 WAR (baseball-reference version). Machado has posted impressive stats dating back to 2013, but his true breakthrough campaign was last year, when the young Baltimore Orioles third baseman posted a. When we talk about young, über-talented phenom hitters dominating baseball, there's a third player in baseball's holy trinity, and his name is Manny Machado. There's just one problem with this debate: It's missing a name. Bryce Harper discussion is present-day baseball's version of Mays vs. With both superstars at very young ages and expected to be a big part of MVP arguments over the next decade-plus, the Mike Trout vs. Manny Machado as good as Mike Trout, Bryce Harper
#MIKE TROUT VS BRYCE HARPER STATS UPGRADE#
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